DRAM prices will rise 3-8% in Q4, says TrendForce, with DDR4 expected to show a 0–5% increase, DDR5 a 3–8% increase and PC DRAM expected to increase 3-8%.
Server DRAM: Buyer inventory of DDR5 has climbed from 20% in Q2 to 30–35% recently. However, with only 15% being actually used in servers in Q3, market uptake is slower than expected.
Meanwhile, Samsung’s intensified production cutbacks have notably shrunk DDR4 wafer inputs, causing a supply crunch in server DDR4 stocks. This scenario leaves no leeway for further server DDR4 price reductions. In response, manufacturers, aiming to enhance profits, are accelerating DDR5 output.
Q4 forecasts anticipate stable server DDR4 average prices, while server DDR5 is set to maintain a declining trajectory.
With DDR5 shipments on the rise and a notable 50-60% price disparity with DDR4, the blended ASP for the range is poised for an upswing.
This leads to an estimated 3–8% quarterly hike in Q4 server DRAM contract prices.
Mobile DRAM: Although Q4 smartphone production hasn’t reached Q4 2022 levels, a seasonal increase of over 10% is still supporting demand for mobile DRAM.
However, manufacturer inventories remain high and production cuts haven’t yet altered the oversupply situation in the short term but manufacturers, under profit margin pressures, are insisting on pushing prices upward.
For products where inventory is more abundant, such as LPDDR4X or those from older manufacturing processes, the estimated contract price increase will be about 3–8% for the quarter.
In contrast, LPDDR5(X) appears to be in tighter supply, with projected contract price increases of 5–10%.
Graphics DRAM: A niche market dynamic and an acceptance of price hikes among buyers suggest sustained procurement of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb chips, preparing for expected price increases in 2024.
The launch of NVIDIA’s new Server GPU L40s in the third quarter is facilitating the depletion of existing manufacturer inventories. Furthermore, gaming notebooks are excelling in sales, surpassing the general notebook market this year.
Consequently, manufacturers are experiencing less inventory stress for graphics DRAM than they are for commodity DRAM. This landscape sets the stage for an anticipated 3-8% hike in graphics DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter.
Consumer DRAM: Samsung’s production cuts are projected to hit 30% by Q4. While manufacturers are looking to increase consumer DRAM contract prices, aiming for hikes of more than 10% to avoid incurring losses, TrendForce’s estimate is for a more modest 3–8% rise in consumer DRAM contract prices for Q4.
